How to improve the bet system (1084 Views)
written by
Decade
on 30.03.07 14:40
The main problem about the bet system is that the odds change wildly in the last minutes before the match. No intelligent people would make a bet without knowing the odds, and this is why lots of people will wait till the very last moment to bet, with the result that the odds change even more wildly.
For example yesterday the odds for vae/141 vs impact were 2 - 2 around 3 minutes before the match, then at the last minute they became 1.33 - 4 , and that's when I bet on impact and won 1000 euro =)
HOW TO FIX THIS
Instead of choosing a team, the betters should be able to choose their expected odds, alongside with the amount of money they want to bet. Then, when "the bets are closed", the final official odds will be calculated by converting the odds stated by the betters in probabilities, and averaging them, weighted with the amount of money bet (and then converting them back to odds). At this point, if the odds you choose for a team attribute a higher probability of victory to that team than the final averaged odds, the system will automatically place your bet on that team; else, the system will automatically place your bet on the other team. This way, there will no longer be the need to bet at the very last moment.
EXAMPLE
Let's say that there's a match A vs B and according to my judgement A has 10 times more chances to win the match than B. I will then choose the following odds: A:1.1, B:11 ; and I will choose to bet 100 euro
Now let's say that the other betters actually believe that A and B are equally skilled, and the final average of all the odds is A:2, B:2. Then the system will automatically place my bet on A. If A wins, I get my 100euro back plus other 100 for a total of 200 euro;. If B wins I lose the money.
If on the other hand the other betters think B has absolutely no chance, and the final odds are A:1.01, B:100, the system will automatically put my money on B, if A wins I lose the money but if B wins I get 10000 euro.
Additionally, you could also give users the possibility to bet the old way, by just choosing a team and an amount of money, and putting the money on that team no matter what the final odds will be. This is equivalent to giving infinite odds for one team, and as such can be easily taken into account when calculating the final averaged odds.
For example yesterday the odds for vae/141 vs impact were 2 - 2 around 3 minutes before the match, then at the last minute they became 1.33 - 4 , and that's when I bet on impact and won 1000 euro =)
HOW TO FIX THIS
Instead of choosing a team, the betters should be able to choose their expected odds, alongside with the amount of money they want to bet. Then, when "the bets are closed", the final official odds will be calculated by converting the odds stated by the betters in probabilities, and averaging them, weighted with the amount of money bet (and then converting them back to odds). At this point, if the odds you choose for a team attribute a higher probability of victory to that team than the final averaged odds, the system will automatically place your bet on that team; else, the system will automatically place your bet on the other team. This way, there will no longer be the need to bet at the very last moment.
EXAMPLE
Let's say that there's a match A vs B and according to my judgement A has 10 times more chances to win the match than B. I will then choose the following odds: A:1.1, B:11 ; and I will choose to bet 100 euro
Now let's say that the other betters actually believe that A and B are equally skilled, and the final average of all the odds is A:2, B:2. Then the system will automatically place my bet on A. If A wins, I get my 100euro back plus other 100 for a total of 200 euro;. If B wins I lose the money.
If on the other hand the other betters think B has absolutely no chance, and the final odds are A:1.01, B:100, the system will automatically put my money on B, if A wins I lose the money but if B wins I get 10000 euro.
Additionally, you could also give users the possibility to bet the old way, by just choosing a team and an amount of money, and putting the money on that team no matter what the final odds will be. This is equivalent to giving infinite odds for one team, and as such can be easily taken into account when calculating the final averaged odds.
Comments
Friday, 30th March 2007 14:48
Nice rant. :)
2much2read :<
I didnt want to read..
But dont improve anything.
This system rule.. I'm already second on GBooky Rankings, and heading for 1. right now. =DD
But dont improve anything.
This system rule.. I'm already second on GBooky Rankings, and heading for 1. right now. =DD
Learn the teams, know their form - gamble
Knowing the teams doesn't change the fact that you can't know the odds. Betting without knowing the odds is not different from betting before knowing the names of the teams in those unknown1 vs unknown2 matches.
and in that way you're playing now you always win money so
i dont agree even tho i didnt even read it, care its fine now
i dont get it ^^
i dont get what he meant, too :)
Lets just keep it the way it is. And let me get first on the rankinglist. =]
I even wrote an example -_-
Instead of choosing to bet on a team, the user writes the probability of victory of one team over the other according to him. Then the system automatically makes the best bet for him according to the odds
Instead of choosing to bet on a team, the user writes the probability of victory of one team over the other according to him. Then the system automatically makes the best bet for him according to the odds
ah now i get it but i doubt that many people will understand this as easily as the current system.
but i have a different idea that archieves almost the same:
oddlimits - the user can fill in the minimum odd he wants to run this bet at, if the odd falls below this value the odd is automatically dropped
but i have a different idea that archieves almost the same:
oddlimits - the user can fill in the minimum odd he wants to run this bet at, if the odd falls below this value the odd is automatically dropped
I like that a lot more because I understand it - no offence Decade, but I think you should give some more examples with the most extreme possibilities and then a normal example (like yours now).
I kinda don't like the idea, some more changes and it'll be like CB going to 5o5 and changing back after 1-2 months (bad comparison, but the only thing that jumped into my mind atm).
Maybe an idea for Gtv2, maybe an idea for some kind of poll?
I kinda don't like the idea, some more changes and it'll be like CB going to 5o5 and changing back after 1-2 months (bad comparison, but the only thing that jumped into my mind atm).
Maybe an idea for Gtv2, maybe an idea for some kind of poll?
actually it's the same idea :p with the difference that instead of cancelling the bet, with my system the bet is placed on the other team
but indeed it's probably better your way :p
but indeed it's probably better your way :p
2much2read :<
How about gambling about the point each team gets in a match, like possible scores 4-0 4-2 0-4 2-4. So it'll make bets higher and more interesting.
Imo the problem is: (short version)
If we lose money, we can't get our money back fast enough couse of the "1.01 - rule". Otherwise I have to agree you can win some more money with the fluctuating odds. Still I prefer the old system, but if u really like it, I'll learn to deal with it. Just do something about 1.01, you don't have to make it 1.25 anymore, but plz just a deal. 1.15 would be nice too
Kindly Regards
If we lose money, we can't get our money back fast enough couse of the "1.01 - rule". Otherwise I have to agree you can win some more money with the fluctuating odds. Still I prefer the old system, but if u really like it, I'll learn to deal with it. Just do something about 1.01, you don't have to make it 1.25 anymore, but plz just a deal. 1.15 would be nice too
Kindly Regards
it would be cool if you couldn't see the odds before the bets are closed.
betting for teams > betting for odds
betting for teams > betting for odds
imo wrong because if there's 1.01 myteam - opponent 100, i just dont bet the match, its not worthy. n your system i wouldnt know that. and its not betting on odds. i always bet on team that i think will win, but i dont bet at all if there's no sense in betting 1.12 or smth...
how to improve the betting system (by pentel)
what about admins of gtv(2) establish odds on some reasonable for betting level (but it has to be fair and correct with expectations) - in real betting i see on the table all matches of champions league and odds 1- 1.45 x- 2,80 2- 3,20 1x- .... it is established once and then it remains unchanged if im correct.
but i guess its impossible to do it here...
what about admins of gtv(2) establish odds on some reasonable for betting level (but it has to be fair and correct with expectations) - in real betting i see on the table all matches of champions league and odds 1- 1.45 x- 2,80 2- 3,20 1x- .... it is established once and then it remains unchanged if im correct.
but i guess its impossible to do it here...
irl the booky sets the odds but will change the odds over time as bets get placed.
an option would be admin sets odds.
odds get adjusted when bets are placed.
not allowed to cancel a bet.
bets pay out at the odds they were placed at.
an option would be admin sets odds.
odds get adjusted when bets are placed.
not allowed to cancel a bet.
bets pay out at the odds they were placed at.
agree completely
nice dude ...
